2011 NFL Mock Draft (Updated 1/6/2011)

Welcome to The Draft Matters' 2011 NFL Mock Draft.

1/6/2011: We've updated our 2011 NFL Mock Draft and there have been several changes. The most significant have had to do with the first 20 picks of the draft being finalized. The exact order of the last 12 picks will be determined by the teams' success in the playoffs. Check back for an updated 2011 NFL Mock Draft next week. Enjoy and feel free to leave your comments.

1. QB - Andrew Luck
Carolina Panthers Stanford
Andrew Luck is too good of a prospect to pass up on. I'm sorry Jimmy Clausen, but you're getting the short end of the stick in this one. The Panthers don't have much invested in Jimmy and a new regime would likely want to start fresh with their own quarterback. Andrew Luck is one of the most NFL-ready quarterback prospects in recent history and has all the tools to be elite in the NFL
Positions of Need: DT, WR, QB
2. DT - Nick Fairlay
Denver Broncos Auburn
Champ Bailey is a free agent after this year and we don't think he will want to return to Denver. Can't say we blame him. Even though Peterson is a tempting choice, hopefully the new regime in Denver realizes great defenses start in the trenches. Fairley could play defensive end or nose tackle in the 3-4 defense and we have him going to the Broncos second overall in this 2011 NFL Mock Draft.
Positions of Need: DE, CB, RB
3. DT - Marcell Dareus
Buffalo Bills Alabama
The Buffalo Bills have officially stolen the "Hardest to pick for" award from the Oakland Raiders. Amazingly, the Raiders had an incredible 2010 NFL draft. With the Bills drafting running back CJ Spiller they proved they don't address team needs while evaluating the NFL draft. This pick is officially impossible to predict. Your guess is as good as ours.
Positions of Need: OT, QB, OLB, WR, DT
4. WR - A. J. Green
Cincinnati Bengals Georgia
Cincinnati can go with either Bowers or AJ Green with this pick. Both will make an impact and are very rare talents. The T.Ochocinco show is probably over and the Bengals could definitely use an upgraded wide receiver core to give Carson more help. Carlos Dunlap has been getting pressure in the late half of the season and may be enough for the coaching staff to pass on defensive ends Da'Quan Bowers and Robert Quinn.
Positions of Need: DE, RB, QB, WR
5. DE - Robert Quinn
Arizona Cardinals North Carolina
Arizona drafts the best player available and increases their pathetic pass rush. Quinn would stand up and be an outside linebacker and occasionally put his hand in the dirt. Arizona could use a quarterback if there is one they think is worth the 5th pick in the 2011 NFL draft.
Positions of Need: QB, LT, OLB
6. WR - Julio Jones
Cleveland Browns Alabama
This is early for Julio and we bet this will change in the weeks leading up to the combine. Cleveland would love to have Fairley or Dareus, but with them off the board in this 2011 NFL Draft, they'll go with their highest rated wide receiver. Adding a freak wide out like Julio Jones would move this team up there for competing with the Steelers and Ravens for the AFC North division crown. Cornerback Patrick Peterson is still available in this 2011 NFL Mock Draft but Cleveland spent the 7th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft on corner back Joe Haden last year and we doubt they double dip on corners so early.
Positions of Need: WR, DE
7. QB - Jake Locker
San Francisco 49ers Washington
A lot of teams drafting after San Francisco will be in the market for a new quarterback. This may be early for Locker but San Francisco can't risk Minnesota, Miami, or Seattle beating them to their guy. It will be interesting to see if a veteran like McNabb gets traded to one of the quarterback-needy teams.
Positions of Need: QB, DE, CB
8. DT - Stephen Paea
Tennessee Titans Oregon State
Tennessee is still looking for their Haynesworth replacement along their defensive front. Paea is a great defensive tackle that will make an immediate impact to improve this defense. They have an opportunity to grab Cam Newton or Ryan Mallet if they want to go in another direction and draft a quarterback.
Positions of Need: QB, DT
9. CB - Patrick Peterson
Dallas Cowboys LSU
Dallas's new coach, presumably Jason Garrett, might want to trade back and accumulate more 2011 NFL draft picks. If Patrick Peterson is still available at pick nine, Dallas will draft him without any hesitation. Dallas could use an upgrade at corner and Peterson is rated as one of the best corner prospects to come along in recent memory.
Positions of Need: OT, G, CB, LB
10. QB - Ryan Mallett
Washington Redskins Arkansas
Rex Grossman has played well but he clearly isn't the future for Shanahan's Redskins. Ryan Mallett reminds us of a younger Jay Cutler with his huge arm and will likely entice the Redskins front office. If the Redskins are happy with Grossman we could see them addressing the offensive line or receiving corps.
Positions of Need: WR, OT, G, QB, RB
11. DE - Da'Quan Bowers
Houston Texans Clemson
Jackpot. The Texans will spend their 1st round pick on a defensive player, as they have since they drafted Andre Johnson in 2003. Defensive tackle is a more pressing need than defensive end, but Bowers is too much of a talent to pass up on and it's amazing he's available at this pick in our 2011 NFL Mock Draft. Mario Williams and Da'Quan Bowers would likely make Peyton Manning lose some sleep.
Positions of Need: DT, DE, S
12. QB - Cam Newton
Minnessota Vikings Auburn
If we're lucky, we won't hear about Brett Favre ever again. Minnesota is in an interesting situation in that they have had problems with their head coach, quarterback, and stadium. Cam Newton is climbing up 2011 NFL Mock Draft boards and could be Favre's replacement.
Positions of Need: S, QB, DB
13. CB - Prince Amukamara
Detroit Lions Nebraska
The Lions have one of the most promising defensive lines in the NFL anchored by probable Defensive Rookie of the Year Ndamukong Suh. When Stafford is healthy, this team is capable of having a very potent offense which we saw glimpses of this year. An offensive tackle would be a reach at pick nine so look for Detroit to improve their secondary with the second best corner in the 2011 NFL Draft.
Positions of Need: CB, OT, G, DE, LB
14. WR - Justin Blackmon
St. Louis Rams Oklahoma State
Sam Bradford is playing like a 10-year veteran and gives the Rams a lot of hope for the future. He's playing at an extremely high level despite the fact he lacks quality targets. He lost his best option, Donnie Avery, and doesn't have a true deep-field threat. Bradford, Steven Jackson, and Blackmon would be a very dangerous offense.
Positions of Need: WR, DT, OLB
15. OT - Gabe Carimi
Miami Dolphins Wisconsin
Miami may draft a running back like Mark Ingram or grab the best offensive tackle in the class before other tackle-needy teams get the chance. In our 2011 NFL Mock Draft, we're going with the latter and having the Dolphins select the physical Gabe Carimi to start on the other side of Jake Long.
Positions of Need: OT, RB
16. CB - Janoris Jenkins
Jacksonville Jaguars Florida
Rashean Mathis is a great corner but the Jaguars don't have much on the other side. The AFC South is a pass-happy division and they'll need more corner back depth to continue to be in the race for the division crown. We have the Jaguars selecting Janoris Jenkins from Florida with the 16th pick in our 2011 NFL Mock Draft.
Positions of Need: CB, DE, S
17. OLB - Ryan Kerrigan
New England Patriots (from Raiders) Purdue
Patriots fans will probably want them to draft a running back or wide receiver in this spot, but we don't see it happening. We think the Patriots' offensive identity will remain largely intact next year. 2010's rookie, Devin McCourty, played over 95% of the defensive snaps this year and the Patriots will want to see their 1st round selection(s) contribute right away. If Matt Light leaves and/or Logan Mankins isn't retained, then offensive line will definitely be a high priority in the 2011 NFL Draft. We predict both remain on the squad which would make this pick focus on addressing their nonexistent pass rush. Its not like Belichick to draft a pass rusher this high but missing out on Clay Matthews in 2009 might make him reconsider. Kerrigan would be an outside linebacker in the 3-4.
Positions of Need: OT, G, OLB, DE
18. OLB - Von Miller
San Diego Chargers Texas A&M
San Diego is missing the playoffs despite having the second best offense and the top defense in the NFL; possibly because their GM didn't pay their left tackle or best wide receiver. With Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeill back, the Chargers don't have many glaring needs. Von Miller will fit well in San Diego's 3-4 defensive scheme and will help take over the void of Shawne Merriman's departure.
Positions of Need: OLB, ILB, DE
19. OLB - Akeem Ayers
New York Giants UCLA
Linebacker is the weak spot of the New York defense. A star player like Akeem Ayers would fit well in the Giants' 4-3 scheme. Upgrades and youth could be used over Clint Sintim and Keith Bullock. Ahmad Bradshaw is a free agent so his contract situation will affect their 2011 NFL Draft plans.
Positions of Need: OLB, CB, WR
20. DE - Adrian Clayborn
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Iowa
Tampa Bay was one of the most surprising teams of the 2010 NFL season. They had an incredible 2010 NFL draft and will hopefully have the same kind of success in 2011. Tampa Bay found stars on offense with Mike Williams and LaGarrette Blount but their defense is costing them games. They are second-worst with only 23 sacks on the season. Tampa will likely draft the best corner back or defensive end still on the board. In our 2011 NFL Mock Draft that player is Adrian Clayborn.
Positions of Need: DE, CB, G, OT
21. DE - Cameron Jordan
Seattle Seahawks California
Seattle made the playoffs and will miss out on drafting one of the premier quarterbacks in round one. This is probably fair to Charlie Whitehurst and Pete Carroll will likely give him a chance in the regular season. Seattle needs to get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks if they want to return to the playoffs next year.
Positions of Need: QB, DE
22. OT - Nate Solder
Indianapolis Colts Colorado
Colts owner Jim Irsay explicitly stated they should have drafted Roger Saffold instead of Jerry Hughes with the 31st pick in 2010 NFL draft. We're not sure how that made Hughes feel but we do know that Irsay is aware of his offensive line's depth issues and we imagine he finds a remedy in the 2011 NFL draft.
Positions of Need: OT, DT, WR
23. RB - Mark Ingram
Green Bay Packers Alabama
Aaron Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the league. In 2009 he didn't have an offensive line. Now, in 2010, he doesn't have any kind of run game. Kuhn, Starks, and Jackson have had solid games but they're not the same runner as Ryan Grant. Mark Ingram has break-away abilities and would reduce Grant's workload and help prevent any further injuries.
Positions of Need: RB, OT, OLB
24. WR - Jon Baldwin
Kansas City Chiefs Pittsburgh
Matt Cassel has found a new level of comfort in Charlie Weiss' offense and is having a terrific year. Dawayne Bowe is having the best season of his career and Jamaal Charles leads the league in yards per carry. The Chiefs have been getting great play from their special teams and defense and have a lot of flexibility with this pick. They could look to improve their front seven on defense, or they could put a 6'5" sure-handed Baldwin on the other side of Bowe. Imagine that.
Positions of Need: WR, OLB, C, DE
25. C - Mike Pouncey
Philadelphia Eagles Florida
Getting Mike Vick locked up will be the first step for Philadelphia's 2011 offseason. The second step should be giving him more protection along his offensive line. Like his brother, Mike Pouncey is a versatile interior lineman who would immediately improve the front line for the Eagles.
Positions of Need: OT, G, C, CB, OLB
26. DT - Drake Nevis
New York Jets LSU
The Jets defense is struggling to generate a pass rush this year. They have to stop relying on the oft-injured Kris Jenkins and draft fresh bodies on their defensive line. Drake Nevis will be disrupting force on the line and will allow the Jets to generate pressure without sending extra bodies. Nevis could play tackle or end for the Jets and is our pick in the 2011 NFL Mock Draft.
Positions of Need: S, DE, OLB, RB
27. DT - J.J. Watt
New Orleans Saints Wisconsin
J.J. Watt would be a nice complement next to Sedrick Ellis on the Saints' defensive line. Outside linebacker is another need but with Ayers and Miller already off the board, we have them going in another direction and drafting a defensive tackle in our 2011 NFL Mock Draft.
Positions of Need: DE, DT, OLB, RB
28. DE - Allen Bailey
Baltimore Ravens Miami
Bailey would improve Baltimore's defensive line by giving them a better pass rush with their front three, as well as stuff the run. He's a prototypical 3-4 defensive end that would fit perfectly in Baltimore's defense.
Positions of Need: DE, OLB, CB
29. OT - Anthony Castonzo
Chicago Bears Boston College
Jay Cutler makes a habit out of getting sacked every game. The Bears have allowed a league-high 50 sacks this season. This team has promise and will need to keep Cutler upright to continue the success in the future. Bears fans will rejoice if they can patch together a better offensive line.
Positions of Need: OT, G, C, DT, CB
30. OT - Tyron Smith
Pittsburgh Steelers USC
Pittsburgh might want to draft a safety in the 2011 NFL Draft if Troy Polamalu can't get over his knee injury. This isn't a strong class for safeties so we see the Steelers improving their offensive line. Flozell Adams is at the end of his career and can't be relied upon for too much longer. Also, Willie Colon and Max Starks were both recently injured. Tyron Smith will fit well in this Pittsburgh's offense.
Positions of Need: OT, G, WR
31. DT - Corey Liuget
Atlanta Falcons Illinois
You don't have the 31st pick unless your team is in good shape and this is the case with the Atlanta Falcons. They could look for a Tony Gonzalez replacement or another wide receiver to complement Roddy White. Corey Liuget is a player to watch and has been gaining credit in recent weeks. Our 2011 NFL Mock Draft has the Falcons spending this pick to improve their defensive line.
Positions of Need: DE, DT, WR, OLB, TE
32. OT - Derek Sherodd
New England Patriots Mississippi State
We suspect there will be a run on offensive tackles at the end of the first round of the 2011 NFL draft. If one of the quality prospects make it to the Patriots, they may pull the trigger. We believe Matt Light will return and finish his career in New England. He has been playing very well this season, but he'll be 33 for the start of the 2011 season and the Patriots need to start grooming his replacement.
Positions of Need: OT, G, OLB, DE